Keep the stages separate
Emails sent, replies, positive leads and deals are different quantities. Our illustrative calculator multiplies monthly volume by reply rate, then positive share of replies, then close rate of positive leads. It is not a forecast.
What 0.2% means
An end-to-end conversion of 0.2% of 36,000 emails gives 72 deals mathematically. That is 1 per 500 emails. Outcomes of 108 and 162 would instead require end-to-end rates of 0.3% and 0.45%.
Why a worst-case label can mislead
At a 0.45% reply rate, 36,000 emails produce 162 replies. If 30% are positive, that is about 49 positive leads. A single funnel cannot then show 72 closed deals from those 49 leads. A low reply-rate scenario must have internally consistent downstream assumptions.
Email is one part of the system
Calling, social content, referrals and marketplace discovery may contribute opportunities too. They need separate measurement and deduplication rather than being silently added to the email calculation. Sending volume and account allowances are not confirmed launch entitlements.